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6 min read

Model Evaluation: What Buyers Should Ask.

A vendor quotes agreement because agreement is the kind statistic. It credits the judge for every verdict chance alone would have produced, and across 21 judge models from nine providers the two figures differ by 38.6 percentage points on average.

A judge sold to you at 85% agreement is sitting near a kappa of 0.48. This playbook sets twenty-one questions across nine areas of the contract, each one printed against the answer that ends the conversation and the answer that earns the next meeting.

In depth

What A Vendor Quotes, And What The Same Judge Is Actually Worth.

01

Agreement counts the easy cases twice.

Exact-match agreement with human raters rewards a judge for every verdict chance alone would have produced, and Cohen's kappa takes that share back out. Across 21 judge models from nine providers and roughly 541,000 judgments, the gap between the two ran from 33.8 to 41.3 percentage points on MT-Bench, averaging 38.6 (Norman, Rivera and Hughes, UC Berkeley School of Information, 2026). Both figures describe the same judge, and only one of them survives a question.

In shortonly one of them survives a question
02

Consistency is the property a demo shows off best.

It is also the property least related to being right. The Berkeley cohort held judges with test-retest reliability above 0.95 that carried severe position bias at the same time, measured as the distance of P(A wins) from an even split and running as high as 0.192. Verbosity turned out to be the smaller worry, with length-to-verdict correlation under 0.011 for every one of the 21 judges. An unstable judge announces itself, and a stable biased one gets adopted, trusted and built on.

In shorttrusted and built on
03

The asset with lasting value is the labelled set.

Harnesses are replaceable in a fortnight and dashboards in an afternoon, but a labelled evaluation set with recorded provenance, an adjudicated disagreement history and a rubric somebody argued over takes a year and a budget to rebuild. That asset is often created inside a vendor's workspace, under a rubric the vendor wrote, and exported as a flat file stripped of the history that made it worth anything. Settle ownership while you are still attractive to them, since the export you have never run is a clause rather than a capability.

In shortSettle ownership while you are still attractive to t…
The detail

Settle It On Your Own Labelled Set, Not On Their Benchmark.

Written replies stay claims until a product meets data it has never seen. Two weeks of measured comparison is worth more than a quarter of written assurance, and it is worth nothing unless you own the ground truth. Three terms decide whether the trial produces evidence.

Zone · 01

Your labels first

Label three hundred of your own items before any vendor sees a row: two labellers on a stated overlap, disagreements adjudicated by a named person, and your own inter-rater kappa computed and written down. That figure is the ceiling on what any judge can be validated to, and a bidder scoring above it has scored noise.

Zone · 02

The sealed half

Split your set by difficulty, release the easy portion for tuning, and score both bidders on the hard remainder nobody has touched. A product tuned on your examples will tell you how well it tunes, which is not what you are buying. Keep the sealed half sealed until both submissions are in.

Zone · 03

Order and length

Present every pairwise case in both orders and include matched long and short versions of the same answer. Record the distance of P(A wins) from an even split and the length-to-verdict correlation as scored outputs rather than footnotes. The Berkeley cohort kept length effects under 0.011, so a high figure here is a product defect and not an industry condition.

By the numbers

The figures that make it a board-level conversation.

0.48
the kappa under a judge reported at 85% agreement on MT-Bench, which is moderate at best
38.6 pp
average gap between exact-match agreement and Cohen's kappa across 21 judges and roughly 541,000 judgments
21 questions
grouped into nine areas and sent to every bidder while the commercials are still open
Inside the report

What you'll take away.

01

Step 1 - Ask for kappa with an interval, and the agreement rate beside it

State the statistic in the request so no bidder gets to choose it afterwards. Read the gap between the two numbers as a direct measure of how much chance was carrying the headline.

02

Step 2 - Ask whose labels validated the judge, and how many items

A named human panel on a held-out sample, with the item count, the rubric they worked from and the agreement among those humans stated first. Validation against another model's verdicts is not validation.

03

Step 3 - Pin the judge version, then ask what arrives before it moves

A judge version you can name and hold for a contractual window, advance notice before the model behind it changes, and a bridging run on a fixed sample so the offset is published rather than discovered.

04

Step 4 - Take the set, the labels and the history out while relations are good

Run the export during the trial, not during the dispute. Per-item provenance, labeller identity, rubric version and the adjudication record should travel with the data as fields, in a format another supplier can run.

Questions

Frequently asked.

Why insist on kappa when every vendor quotes agreement?

Agreement credits the judge for every verdict chance alone would have produced. Across 21 judges from nine providers the two statistics differed by 33.8 to 41.3 percentage points on MT-Bench, a mean of 38.6. Accept agreement and you have bought roughly forty points of comfort that nobody measured.

A vendor quotes one kappa figure. Is that enough?

No, ask what it does when the benchmark underneath it changes. Kappa across the Berkeley cohort spread 13.5 points on MT-Bench against 60.4 on JudgeBench, about 4.5 times wider, and more than half of the 21 judges moved four or more ranking positions between benchmarks. One figure describes one test.

Their judge reproduces the same verdict every time. Does that settle it?

It settles reproducibility and nothing else. Berkeley found the two properties coming apart in the same cohort: judges whose test-retest reliability cleared 0.95 while position effects on those same judges reached 0.192. A steady judge makes the same error every week, which is why nobody catches it.

What happens to our score history when they upgrade the judge?

Unless somebody drew a boundary on the chart, it is worth less than it looks. Ask for the judge treated as a release unit: advance notice, both versions addressable at once, a bridging run on a fixed sample, and the measured offset published rather than left for you to find.

You build evaluation systems. Why publish the questions that catch you out?

Every question here is one we expect to be asked ourselves, and two of them we answer less comfortably than the rest. A guide that skipped those would not be worth reading.

Send the whole set to us on the same terms as to every other bidder, and compare what comes back.

We already run an evaluation system. Does this help?

Only at the edges. This one reads what a vendor commits to on paper while you can still walk away. Benchmarking Model Evaluation is the instrument for the apparatus you already operate, scoring the set it uses, what its judge is actually measuring, and whether any of that ever predicted production.

Read that one once the contract is signed and the apparatus is yours.

Who inside our organisation should own this set of questions?

A director of QA, with whoever will run the suite daily once it is bought. Add the person who signs the data agreement before area seven, since ownership of the labelled set and its adjudication history is a legal question as much as a technical one.

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Next step

Ask for the statistic they did not print.

Bring the judge a vendor is currently asking you to buy and a few hundred of your own adjudicated items. We will restate its headline figure in kappa with an interval, in front of you, before anybody talks price. SECTION 7 - FAQ - 5 to 8 questions

Review an evaluation vendor